War Preparation in the Middle East

J.R. Nyquist writes today of how the Syrian army has apparently “been mobilized and is digging defensive positions.“  He writes in part:

Syrian military leaders have been meeting with Iranian military leaders to coordinate war preparations. The Russians and Chinese have been sending significant arms shipments to Syria, including advanced MiG-31 fighters, Chinese-made C-802 anti-ship missiles, Metis-M and Kornet anti-tank missiles (used to stop the Israeli offensive in Lebanon last year), and sophisticated anti-air missiles. A new generation of Russian weapons, fielded after the “collapse” of the Soviet Union, have strengthened Syria’s overall military position. It is not that Syria can defeat Israel in a ground war. It is a question of improved attrition capabilities. The Israeli military has a low tolerance for attrition.

The Syrians seem to expect an attack on their country. The Syrian government is allegedly moving sensitive state archives out of Damascus. Rockets are being sent to the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon. What is going on? Is a major terrorist strike being contemplated against Israel? Will this strike involve chemical, biological or nuclear weapons? Will this strike implicate Syria? Without a simultaneous Egyptian attack on Israel from the south, Syria cannot successfully make war on Israel from the north. And yet, Syria feels that war is coming. It’s as if the Syrians know something is going to happen. Some analysts believe the Syrians and Iranians are reacting to the U.S. troop surge in Iraq. There is talk of a new clandestine U.S. strategy of tilting against Iran and Syria, of favoring Sunni groups in Iraq. The Syrians and Iranians are allies, and might be worried about an American air campaign against them. The best strategy, in reaction, would be to begin a war against Israel. The Americans must not be perceived as working directly with the Israelis against a Muslim or Arab country. Such a perception might seriously erode America’s standing with Arab allies, and further hinder the Bush administration’s effort in Iraq.

Nyquist doesn’t have much evidence to support his claims, despite the claims being probable and likely. He does cite an article from the Debka File that reports about two Iranian delegations spending time in Damascus early this month, but I wanted something more recent.

I did some searching and was only able to find one item; a post yesterday from the Counterterrorism Blog. The post basically gives some news about how Syrian President Assad was furious at other Arab leaders for denouncing Syria’s interference with Lebanon and also mentions that the Syrian army is on high alert at the border with Israel. Nothing too new or exciting, but I get the feeling that this stuff is way too underreported here in the United States.

But getting back to Nyquist’s article, I found his answers to how a new war might start to be interesting.

Iran and Syria have a mutual defense pact. Both are being supplied with Russian and Chinese weapons, and both are expecting a war by the end of summer. How will the war start? Perhaps it will begin with an American preemptive strike against Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Perhaps the troop surge has convinced them of Bush’s aggressive intentions. But the troop surge has proved disappointing. More likely, the Syrians and Iranians think that Bush is politically crippled and incapable of a major offensive. If the Bush administration were consistent and logical, and completely contemptuous of public opinion, then an attack on Syria and Iraq could occur. Some have argued that President Bush is actively preparing for a wider war in the Middle East. But this is doubtful.

The strategy of Iran and Syria, like the strategy of Muslim terrorists, is manipulated by Moscow and Beijing. It is Moscow’s timetable that carries the most weight. Moscow supplies the needed weapons, and the intelligence assessments. According to the late Alexander Litvinenko, a former KGB officer assassinated by Russian operatives last November, Moscow wants America to be bogged down in a Middle East war. Top leaders in al Qaeda are Russian agents. The Russians trained many terrorist leaders in Gaza and the West Bank. And Russia is well served by growing violence in Lebanon. Middle East conflict keeps oil prices high, and that makes money for oil-rich Russia. The American economy is thereby weakened.

War is a good thing for powers that seek to exploit trouble.