Scarcity is the basis of fun in games. I’d go further and say scarcity underlies every aspect of life itself.
Monthly Archive for February, 2008
It started with a tingle in the back of my throat five or six days ago. I knew I was going to get sick. I increased my consumption of liquids and vitamin C and zinc to help alleviate the symptoms. Two days ago the soar throat was gone. I thought my illness had run its course.
I was tricked.
This virus tricked me into letting down my defenses! I was lulled into a false state of security. I thought the cold/virus/disease had packed its bags and gone home. But again, I was tricked. I accepted the Trojan horse. And over the course of a night, the soldiers crept out of their hiding and ransacked my immune system during its slumber.
I awoke with a runny nose, aches, and congestion.
Now, thanks to Tylenol multi-symptom drugs, my symptoms have largely abated and I think I am on the true road to recovery. My only gripe is that these drugs seemed to have dried out my lips and nose a LOT. I feel like my left nostril is going to start bleeding at any moment and I’m sure by now I have swallowed a fair amount of chap stick from my lips.
After subprime, the next financial crisis could be the result of credit default swaps.
It appears uranium may be on the rise again. There certainly will be great demand for the stuff in the future, but will a global slowdown depress the price of this valuable commodity?
On Valentine’s Day, the Fed submitted $210 billion via temporary open market operations, $8.25 of which was accepted.
This is a huge submission by the Fed. I’ve heard rumors and talk of another bank being in trouble, but who knows when and what is going to happen.
I always feel a little like a chump doing these charts because I’m no expert in technical analysis. But it’s fun to see whether or not I am right about my predictions! Anyways, here is the chart for Fossil (FOSL), the “the “global design, marketing and distribution company that specializes in consumer fashion accessories.”
The chart shows a bearish symmetrical continuation triangle. The slow stochastic indicator appears to have crossed over to the downside, the stock price is near the top of its trend channel, and the retail sector is a weak one in general now that Americans are starting to hold back on spending.
I feel there is a better than average chance of profiting on this stock by shorting it or buying puts at least 3 months out. This stock is most likely going to retest $30 and then maybe $25, both areas of strong support.
Nevertheless, Fossil was recently upgraded to a “Buy” by Piper Jaffray. Fossil claims that global growth and raising the prices on its watches are going to contribute to higher earnings. We’ll soon see about that when it reports on the 19th.
I wish I had a hamster now that I realize the amount of fun on which I am missing out.
From the Financial Ninja, here’s a chart of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, Nikkei composite, and Nasdaq composite:
Ernst & Young has released a report that addresses the cyclical nature of commodities, the abilities of analysts to forecast commodities prices, and what these two factors mean for the future of this sector.
Ernst & Young says metals analysts’ prediction of metal prices “have consistently and significantly lagged behind the actual spot market,” and that mining and metals equities have been undervalued. They also say, “It is our view that current metal prices are actually a return to sustainable price levels following an extended period of artificially depressed prices, rather than the conventional wisdom that the industry is near the top of a cycle.”
It will be interesting to see how this plays out if a recession takes place in the U.S. Will a recession in the U.S. affect the growth of BRIC countries and thereby the demand of raw materials?
Hat tip to Sufiy for the link.
A Republican president today proposed a record-setting budget of $3.1 trillion:
WASHINGTON - President Bush sent the nation’s first-ever $3 trillion budget proposal to Congress on Monday, contending that the spending blueprint will fulfill his chief responsibility to keep America safe.
ADVERTISEMENTThe $3.1 trillion proposed budget projects sizable increases in national security but forces the rest of government to pinch pennies. It seeks $196 billion in savings over five years in the government’s giant health care programs — Medicare and Medicaid.
But even with those restraints, the budget projects the deficits will soar to near-record levels of $410 billion this year and $407 billion in 2009, driven higher in part by efforts to revive the sagging economy with a $145 billion stimulus package.
Granted, we have a war on terror to support, but still, a good Republican president would have left office with total government spending as a percentage of GDP nearly unchanged. Ryan Ellis of American Shareholders Association says that for a Republican president to grow the size of government, as an opening bid in his last year of office, is not a good harbinger of where we’ll end up.
If a Republican president thinks its fine to grow government, just think how much the two Dem frontrunners will grow government. Another worry of mine is that people are growing accustomed to the idea of government entitlements. People have no conception of what three trillion is like. The number is hard to put into any sort of meaningful context. This is a dangerous situation when we’re talking about your, mine, and our money because I feel it gives the false impression that money is no object. Tim over at The Mess Greenspan Made says, “[N]o one really has any concept of just how big a number that is and, therefore, no one really seems to know or care if it is too big, too small, or just right.”
The fact that people might not care whether $3.1 trillion is too big, small, or just right is a scary prospect.
