Is a Pullback Likely for March 26, 2008?

The slope of the 50 day moving average for SPY is still pointing down. There is also some evidence that chances of a pullback increase when the market closes higher 3 days in a row while under its 200 day moving average.

One last, large factor that indicates a pullback from this small rally is the lack of volume. Volume has decreased over the last few trading days, thus creating a negative divergence between volume and price, and this is not favorable for a rising market.

With all this in mind, I feel its highly unlikely the market will rise, but certainly more likely that the markets will be in a trading range or will be falling once again.

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