Monthly Archive for April, 2008

The Markets Keep Me Sweating and Laughing

Via streaming quotes, I’ve had the opportunity to watch how the market has reacted on days where there is a scheduled Fed announcement. The typical pattern is usually a slow build up until the Fed releases the statement at which point there is huge volatility. The market spikes up and/or down once or twice before deciding on a direction.  It’s always a nailbiter. Today was no different. Here’s a 2-day chart of IWM (it tracks the Russell 2000) to demonstrate what I’m talking about:

2-day chart for the IWM

Can you tell where the Fed made it’s announcement? Even without my big hint, I’m sure you could make an educated guess.

Anyways here is a longerterm chart of the IWM:

1 Year chart for IWM

I still am in agreement with some of the bears out there that there is room for more downside to the markets.

S&P Weekly Approaches EMA(50)

I think this chart is fair warning.

Chart of S&P500

Those who don’t learn from the mistakes of the past are doomed to repeat them. But you can never count on the markets doing what you think they will do. And furthermore, this advice is worth exactly what you paid for it: Nothing!

Clinton Challenges Obama to More Debates

After her recent win in Pennsylvania, Hillary Clinton is challenging Barack Obama to yet another debate before the primaries in Indiana and North Carolina.

“I’m offering Senator Obama the chance to debate me one-on-one, no moderators,” Clinton said this afternoon at a rally at a baseball stadium in South Bend, Indiana. “Just the two of us going for 90 minutes, asking and answering questions. We’ll set whatever rules seem fair.”

Obama is unreceptive, as well he should be. In my experience, it’s the weakest candidate that is the one clamoring for more debates. More debates for Obama mean more opportunities for him to screw and a better opportunity for America to see who he truly is: condescending and one of the most liberal Senators there is.

Yet, despite some missteps, some rather revealing commentary coming from Obama, and despite Hillary’s win, he still has the upper hand and should not take up Hillary’s offer. On the other hand, I would love to see two politicians debate each other without rules and without moderators. This type of debate is sadly lacking from the political scene in America.

How To Spot a Persian Prostitute

It’s strangely ironic that prostitution can exist in an Iranian holy city, though I guess the world’s oldest profession will always find a way.

The international kilogram conundrum

In the more than a century since ‘perfect’ platinum-iridium cylinders were first used as the world’s kilogram standards, their weights have mysteriously fluctuated.

Hamas is a Terrorist Group While Iran is Not?

Obama puts forward the “the same incoherent litmus test he mentioned a few days ago.” This is a test that “conveniently allows him to talk to Iran — a sovereign state … but otherwise guilty of the same sins he lists vis-a-vis Hamas — while ignoring Hamas lest it put him on the wrong side of pro-Israel voters.”

My question is how does one not consider Iran to be a terrorist organization? Yes, it has borders, yes it has a hierarchical structure unlike the network-based structure of a terrorist organization. But Iran still wants to DESTROY Israel. Iran is still funding terrorist groups, giving money to the families of suicide bombers, and training forces that are killing U.S. and allied soldiers.

To me, Iran is a terrorist organization dressed up as a state. Obama, Clinton, Carter, or the State Department can talk all they want with Iran. This won’t change Iran’s goals of ruling the middle-east and pushing the Jewish people into the sea. It took millions of lives and a world war to realize that Hitler wasn’t playing around. Will it take that much to force us to realize Iran isn’t playing around?

What’s even scarier nowadays is the realistic possibility that a so-called state can conceivably pass off a nuke to a terrorist organization who would then detonate it wherever it pleases. There would be no smoking gun and it would be nearly impossible to connect officially such an action to a “state.” Just by virtue of having borders and some form of centralized government, Iran can allow “unaffiliated” terrorist organizations do its dirty work while it can bask in one of the benefits of statehood, namely unending diplomacy and talks which further legitimizes an undeserving and dangerous terrorist organization state.

Chattanooga Road Race

This past weekend I went to Chattanooga to participate in my first races as a Cat 3. I did alright in the TT, much better than I would have without borrowing Robert’s TT bike. The crit was in a beautiful part of downtown Chattanooga. I started off in the back and stayed there for most of the race. The course was an L-shape with six turns and was extremely fast and it was very difficult for me to work my to the front. There was perhaps only one opportunity for me to get to the front, but that would have required me to attack almost immediately at a turn, something which did not seem like a very safe thing for me to do. Thus I stayed near the back and was constantly sprinting after all the corners due to the yo-yo effect. Though I finished with the field, I was pleased with my effort and a little surprised at how fast we went. We averaged 30 mph for 40 minutes.

The road race was a race that was much more suited to me. One large hill and rolly and windy for the rest of the course. The Cat 3 field had 3 loops of 22 miles each for a total of about 66 miles. Again I started off on the back and was rather impatient for the race to start, which would be at the large hill about halfway through the 22 mile loop.

Up until we got to the hill, I could not tell what was going on. There were a couple of times when the field sped up, most likely to catch a break attempt, but I could not tell what was happening.

We finally got to the hill and there the real race started. I quickly made my way up to the front, threading my way through all the non-climbers. Once at the top, we did not let up and accelerated quickly to the bottom. At the bottom there was a long, flat stretch over a bridge before a right turn. At this point, the cyclists at the front were forming into a line for drafting purposes, leaving lots of room for any rider to get up to the front on the left side. This looked like a great opportunity for me. I could slowly accelerate to the front and then explode as I reached the 3rd rider from the front. From there I would be in a good position to take the turn without breaking and continue on by myself along the hilly course.

My plan worked an no one attempted to follow me for about 30-40 seconds. After that there was a solo rider from Iron Data making an attempt to bridge the gap I had created. I knew I needed him to reach me so we could work together, but I also did not want to slow down too much where the rest of the field would catch up. The Iron Data rider caught up to me fine and then we began our breakaway effort that lasted for 55 miles until the end.

Along the way, we picked up one other rider who had taken off really early in our race and he worked with us for 1 lap until we dropped him on a hill. The largest gap we had was roughly 3 minutes and then it fluctuated between 2 and 2.5 minutes.

The Iron Data rider took first and I took second. This was one of the longest, most difficult efforts I’ve put out in a race. I was impressed with myself and with the Iron Data rider. I was very glad he chose to bridge my gap.

Quote of the Day: “Obama Panders Less Well”

I thought this last paragraph from Clive Crook’s blog post about Obama’s recent “bitter” comment was really funny.

Pandering is one thing. It is to be expected of politicians. But it is unwise, and it violates the etiquette of the profession, to say that you are pandering. Hillary panders to anti-trade sentiment, to the religious, and now (can this be correct?) to gun enthusiasts–all with apparently total conviction. Obama panders less well. I think it is a question of experience.

Read the whole thing for a good dissection of Obama’s comment and Hillary’s response to it.

BUCY and PCP

It was a long weekend for me. Drove up to Chattanooga, Tennessee with three of my teammates to compete in some bicycle races. Here are two charts that look good to me.

041408 chart of BUCY

This is a chart of BUCY. I like it because it looks as though it is topping out and it is also very close to the top of its trend channel. Intermediate target price is $85.31 and longer term target would be approximately $67.

041408 chart of PCP

This is a chart of PCP. It’s broken several trend lines and I expect it to go lower. I know nothing about this company at all, but just going by the name, it seems to be involved in manufacturing precision castparts. With a global economic slowdown currently underway, I suspect demand for such things will fall. First target price is around $92.50 with a long term target of $75.

Three Trades for April 10, 2008

I sold into the strength yesterday, perhaps a little recklessly considering how utterly unpredictable the market has become, but I saw two charts trading at or near the top of trend channels and the third trade was in response to the retail sector’s large bounce after Walmart’s report.

041008 chart of DVN

Here we have DVN, at the top of its trend channel.

041008 chart of MDT

Here is a chart of Medtronic, MDT. Not a terribly strong stock, nor at a very extreme level, but I still thought it was worth a shot.

041008 chart of RTH

This is RTH, the etf for the retail sector. I had a put previously, but sold for a profit at 92. I thought yesterday was a good chance to reload.