Currently, by the RCP Average, Obama is expected to take 46.8% of the vote and McCain 42.8%, which means there is a spread of 4 points. However, at Intrade, Obama is trading at 63 and McCain at 33.5, a huge spread of 29.5 points.
Here are the intrade charts:
If I were a betting man, I would bet that this spread will narrow as Novemeber approaches. I bet if you sold Obama and bought McCain, you’d be able to make a nice profit when you cash out a week before the election. Of course, this idea works best if McCain can make it to the election still alive. If McCain didn’t make it to election day for some reason, you’d have a big loss on your hands.
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