Monthly Archive for August, 2008

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Sears Showcase at NY Fashion Week

One does not associate Sears with fashion. The first thing that always came to my mind are large refrigerators and lots of tools. But perhaps Sears will be able to improve its image in the world of fashion after their upcoming showcase at New York’s fasion week in September.

Sears, Roebuck and Co., a subsidiary of Sears Holdings Corp. said on Wednesday that it will unveil a lifestyle exhibit on Sept. 10 in New York’s Bryant Park, where fashion’s biggest names parade their spring collections on catwalks set up under big, white tents.

The retailer, not known for fashionable clothes, faces a hurdle convincing shoppers of its chic factor. It is also following in the footsteps of discount retailer Wal-Mart Stores Inc., whose attempt to ratchet up its fashion credentials at the same event backfired, hurting profits in 2007.

Sears’ exhibit, open to the public, will showcase brands Sears already offers in its stores, like Kenmore appliances, as well as new brands that it is introducing, like a clothing line by rapper LL Cool J.

The article also mentions how Wal-Mart’s showcase at the fashion week in 2005 was a bit of a flop. By 2007, Wal-Mart scrapped its Fashion Week plans because “[i]ts shoppers proved more interested in basic, affordable clothes than trendy fashions like skinny jeans, leaving Wal-Mart with heaps of unsold clothing to mark down.”

Hopefully this will be a net gain for Sears.

Disclosure: I own Sears (SHLD)

Some Current Contrarian Investing and Trading Tips

If you’re a trader, Gold Stock Bull lists three areas where one should probably be able to profit: financials, the dollar, and energy. With energy, Petrobras is the particular stock mentioned right now that seems to be a both a good trading and investing opportunity.

I also agree with the general outlook on energy. Oil was greatly overvalued, but now it seems that there has been an over-correction.  But perhaps not, as I have been hearing that there is some evidence of a greater worldwide economic slowdown, and thus a decrease in demand for energy.

Alleghany Updates Quarterly Holdings Report

Alleghany Corp (Y) last Friday field its 13F-HR, its securities holdings report. There are 13 new holdings, though they are all quite small relative to their entire portfolio. However, I still would like to analyze further some of their new holdings.

What stands out most to me is that eight of these new holdings are related to the energy/oil/gas industries. In general, I think all these new holdings are in some way related to energy or construction. I guess this is not surprising considering the recent decline in oil and the sell-off of all oil- and energy-related companies.

The new holdings are (from largest to smallest investment):

  • CBI – Chicago Bridge & Iron Co
  • GLBL – Global Industries Ltd
  • TRMA – Trico Marine Services Inc
  • PBR – Petroleo Brasileiro
  • KEGS – Key Energy Services Inc
  • EOG – Eog Resources Inc
  • FTK – Flotek Industries Inc
  • MDR – Mcdermott International Inc
  • PXP – Plains Exploration & Production Co
  • STO – Statoilhydro ASA
  • XTO – XTO Energy Inc
  • CCJ – Cameco Corporation
  • NS – Nustar Energy LP

I will most likely look closely at CBI, GLBL, and TRMA. Trico Marine in particular looks appealing since it has fallen quite a bit and its Chairman and CEO recently purchased 10,000 shares.

XL Capital CEO Purchases $2 Million of Stock

The Royal Gazette reports that XL Capital’s (XL) CEO Michael McGavick recently purchases $2 million of his company’s stock:

XL Capital Ltd. chief executive officer Michael McGavick has shown his confidence in his company bouncing back from its recent hard times by spending $2 million of his own money on the Bermuda-based insurer’s shares.

A regulatory filing on Thursday showed that Mr. McGavick purchased 110,000 XL shares on the open market at $18.19 apiece, thereby quadrupling his holding in the company he leads.

Another insider to give personal financial backing to the company was former Bermuda Governor Sir John Vereker, an XL director, who invested nearly $50,000 in its shares, also on Thursday.

Mr. McGavick has been in the XL hot seat for three months, succeeding Brian O’Hara, and has experienced a baptism of fire during one of the most difficult periods in the company’s history.

A company’s CEO purchasing large amounts of stock on the open market is a very positive sign. I’ve written about XL previously in connection to their exposure to the massive storm and flood damage Iowa saw not too long ago. XL’s stock is down over 70% for the past 12 months. I am seriously thinking about establishing a small position in XL with this recent bit of news.

Revisiting An April Prediction

I used to be begin into technical analysis. I still find it interesting, but I certainly will never rely upon it. It’s about as useful as looking at goat entrails when it comes to purchasing stocks that will be gain in value over time.

That said, I just wanted to revisit a prediction I made in April this year based on a chart I created of the S&P 500. With the S&P at 1400, I predicted another steep drop to about 1200 in the coming months. Well, It looks like my prediction came true.

Of course, there were a multitude of factors that contributed to this outcome. It wasn’t just the chart and it wasn’t my extraordinary intellect. It could be luck. It’s probably just my belief that financials were going to get much worse before they got better, and that they drag down the rest of the market with them.

After reading Buffett and Graham, I’m now more wary than ever about trying to predict the future; it’s simply not a productive use of time. Time is best spent researching stocks in order to find which are undervalued and present a bargain and margin of safety.