Monthly Archive for September, 2008

Sweet Bank Deals of the Recent 21st Century

Dealscape has a list of the Top 7 bank deals of the 21st century:

No. 7. Jamie Dimon, Bank One Corp.  He deserves a higher ranking, but he’s had enough glowing praise lately. When Dimon sold Bank One in January 2004, he got $58 billion at a valuation of  2.7 times book value. All of it was in stock. But it was J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. stock, and it has risen 13% since then. The deal was good strategically and in terms of long-term shareholder value.

No. 3. Stephen H. Gordon, Commercial Capital Bancorp. This Irvine, Calif., bank isn’t listed here because it sold out in April 2006 for $983 million, nor because it achieved a valuation of 3.1 times tangible book value, nor even because it accepted cash. It is named here because Gordon did not accept the stock of the buyer, Washington Mutual Inc. That $983 million would be virtually worthless today if he had.

No. 2. Walter A. Dods Jr., Community First Bankshares Inc. Fargo, N.D.-based Community First Bankshares was an illogical amalgam of tiny banks in 12 western states. Yet somehow in March 2004, the bank pried $1.2 billion from the clutches of BancWest Corp., a unit of BNP Paribas SA of France, for its far-flung network. That’s equal to 3.3 times book value, all of it in cash.

No. 1. Charles John Koch, Charter One. Koch hit a grand slam in 2004 when he sold his Cleveland-based bank to Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc. He sold for $10.5 billion — in cash. The valuation was 3.0 times book value. Fantastic. But here’s the most impressive thing. Sources told The Deal at the time that Koch shopped his bank and had a few offers, but RBS was the only one offering all cash. He declined stock offers from other Ohio banks, like Fifth Third Bancorp of Cincinnati and KeyCorp of Cleveland. Those shares have been massacred in the credit crisis.

These guys who sold their banks for cash before 2008 deserve gold medals and trophies. In general, it seems to me that selling a company for cash is vastly more preferable to a share exchange. And of course this is even easier to say looking back from the current financial crisis.

Perception is Reality and Feelings Trumps Facts

In September 2005, Malcolm Gladwell wrote an article about auto safety and the rise in popularity of SUVs. It’s an interesting article. Two important facts to take away from the are: (1) perception is reality and (2) feelings often trump facts. If people can acknowledge these two human tendencies, they will at least be more self-aware, and perhaps even more rational and thoughtful. The following are snippets from the article that illustrate these two central points.

Perception is Reality

Then there’s this notion that you need to be up high. That’s a contradiction, because the people who buy these S.U.V.s know at the cortex level that if you are high there is more chance of a  rollover. But at the reptilian level they think that if I am bigger and taller I’m safer. You feel secure because you are higher and dominate and look down. That you can look down is psychologically a very powerful notion. And what was the key element of safety when you were a child? It was that your mother fed you, and there was warm liquid. That’s why cup holders are absolutely crucial for safety. If there is a car that has no cup holder, it is not safe. If I can put my
coffee there, if I can have my food, if everything is round, if it’s soft, and if I’m high, then I feel safe.

Feelings Trump Facts

The truth, underneath all the rationalizations, seemed to be that S.U.V. buyers thought of big, heavy vehicles as safe: they found comfort in being surrounded by so much rubber and steel. To the engineers, of course, that didn’t make any sense, either: if consumers really wanted something that was big and heavy and comforting, they ought to buy minivans, since minivans, with their unit-body construction, do much better in accidents than S.U.V.s. (In a thirty-five-m.p.h. crash test, for instance, the driver of a Cadillac Escalade—the G.M. counterpart to the Lincoln Navigator—has a sixteen-percent chance of a life-threatening head injury, a twenty-percent chance of a life-threatening chest injury, and a thirty-five-percent chance of a leg injury. The same numbers in a Ford Windstar minivan—a vehicle engineered from the ground up, as opposed to simply being bolted onto a pickup-truck frame—are, respectively, two percent, four percent, and one percent.) But this desire for safety wasn’t a rational calculation. It was a feeling.

GSI Group: Liquidation Value

For the past couple of weeks I’ve been reading a new blog I’ve found called Barel Karsan. The title is a combination of the surnames of the two authors. It’s a very good value investing blog with a great number of posts that details the different methods of valuation that are open to investors. It’s really inspiring to me how they have in the past found small, ignored stocks trading at a discount to fair value.

A recent post detailing the steps to take when performing a liquidation value analysis spurred me to perform some searching. I created a spreadsheet to help me do a quick analysis of about 40 stocks I felt had potential to be trading below liquidation value. I found a couple promising stocks, one of which was GSI Group (GSIG). GSI Group supplies precision motion component products, lasers, and laser-based manufacturing systems to electronics, semiconductor, medical, aerospace, and industrial markets worldwide. Some of their stuff has been used on NASA’s Shuttle Discovery!

The following commentary is meant to parallel Barel Karsan’s post on the liquidation value of Amisco. And just to warn any reader, I am not an investment advisor and you should not act upon anything I say without talking to a professional. Now, on to the results of my liquidation value analysis.

GSIG liquidation value

I calculated the liquidation value per share to be roughly $6.68. Compared to a current price of $3.6 per share, the discount is about 46%. Looks good, but is it too good to be true? One would have to take a closer look at the balance sheet and cash flows to ensure they are not stepping into a trap. However, I am not able to detect any signs that would point to trouble. Cash has steadily increased, along with operating cash flow and owner earnings. GSIG has a current ratio of 6.79, which is very healthy.

In conclusion, this was a useful exercise for myself. If anyone sees any possible mistakes, please let me know via the comments.

A Failure of Corporate Governance

Writing about the failed financial institutions, Carl Icahn feels “it is difficult to see how one could reach any conclusion other than that the boards of directors of a number of these imploded financial firms utterly failed to successfully implement some of their primary tasks - to oversee management and monitor and evaluate risk controls.”

I concur with Carl. The problem with these failed institutions was excessive risk-taking and excessive leverage. Each one of these failed institutions had boards of directors to watch over management, so what went wrong with these directors?

First there is the problem that these board members are most likely paid far too much for doing far too little. The board seat might even constitute a substantial portion of the board member’s total salary. With high compensation, it is little wonder that a director would not want to challenge management lest he or she be terminated and lose that easy money.

One idea I have to foster an environment in which a board of directors takes a more active role in monitoring a company is to codify Warren Buffett’s requirements for his BoD. Buffett’s rules are very simple and are designed to align the director’s interests with the shareholders: (1) the director must be a longtime shareholder, (2) a substantial shareholder, and (3) the must only receive minimal compensation.

Buffett’s easy rules for directors would be an excellent start and I think much preferable to more minute, detailed regulations that would continue to ratchet up costs of compliance with the SEC.

Redesign of WSJ.com

Just wanted to say I’m really impressed with the redesign of WSJ.com. It looks great and I’m sure it will continue to attract more visitors.

Choosing Activist Shareholders or Current Management

I am a shareholder of the DWS Global Commodities Stock Fund (GCS). The 2008 Annual Meeting is coming up and there is currently an interesting and important choice. The choice will be either to elect the current Board’s nominees or the nominees of activist investor Art Lipson and his Western Investment LLC fund. I made my decision to purchase GCS solely based on the arguments set forward by Art Lipson, but I want to set out the arguments made by each side in this upcoming vote.

Directors’ Arguments

First, GCS claims that the fund has performed well. YTD, “the fund has outperformed its peer group on both an NAV total return basis and on a market total return basis.” GCS experienced a -0.17% market return versus a -6.25% market return for the peer group. Since inception (Sept. ‘04), GCS delivered a total NAV return of 106.55% while the total market return has been 80.22%.

Second, GCS believes the Fund’s closed-end structure has helped contribute to its returns because it allows the Fund to remain fully invested in the markets and respond more quickly to market conditions.

Third, GCS is against the possibility of converting GCS into an ETF or ETN, open-ending, or liquidating the fund. GCS argues any of these actions would involve significant costs that would be borne by the fund.

Fourth, GCS claims that Lipson’s interests are not aligned with GCS stockholders. GCS calls attention to Lipson’s statement in an SEC filing where he says he has hedged out the commodity exposure and is just “playing the discount to narrow.”

Fifth, GCS argues that if Lipson and his nominees are elected to the Board, they will have have conflicting loyalties because they will owe allegiance both to the fund and its stockholders and also to the Western Investment funds.

Lipson’s and Western Investment’s Argument

First, Lipson feels that GCS’s NAV discount is unacceptable:

GCS’s Share price has traded at a persistent discount to its per Share net asset value that has averaged 13.3% between January 1, 2005 and June 30, 2008, and as great as 16.6% on August 17, 2007.  Thus, when GCS stockholders sell their Shares they are forced to leave behind a sizeable portion of the value underlying those Shares.  We believe that the persistence of this discount is, in part, due to the perception that the persistent and substantial NAV discount is not being addressed by the GCS Board.  Any time a stockholder chooses to sell his or her ownership of a closed-end fund at a steep discount to NAV, that stockholder is harmed no matter what the fund’s discount was at the time the stockholder purchased their shares of that fund.  When a NAV discount is excessive, a selling stockholder is forced to leave behind a substantial portion of the value underlying the shares at the time of sale.  We believe the fair value of a share of common stock of a closed-end fund should be its NAV, or a value very close.

Lipson notes that GCS has frequently been among the worst of all closed-end funds in terms of discount to NAV and has frequently traded in the bottom 1% of all closed-end funds in terms of discount to NAV.

Second, Lipson believes the current independent members of the GCS Board, who receive compensation from service on 133 funds, may be too beholden to the Fund’s investment manager. All incumbent independent GCS directors are a director of at least 133 of the 136 total funds in the DWS fund complex.

While the current composition of the GCS Board appears to satisfy applicable securities and investment company laws, Lipson questions whether service by each of GCS’s handpicked independent directors of at least 133 funds is in the best interests of GCS’s stockholders.  Lipson believes an independent director should not be a director of 133 funds in the DWS fund complex. Also:

  • we believe that in serving as a director of so many registered investment companies inherent conflicts may arise.  For example, we believe a person serving in such multiple positions may become unduly beholden to the Fund’s investment manager, and less inclined to act in the best interests of GCS’s stockholders, although we have no direct evidence that any of GCS’s directors have acted in this way;
  • we question whether directors who collect, on average, over $200,000 each in annual fees in the aggregate for their service on at least 133 DWS boards are too beholden to the investment manger to take decisive action that benefits stockholders if it would negatively affect the fees collected by Deutsche Investment Management, the Fund’s investment manager;
  • we question whether the current directors are the best people to perform the essential task of evaluating the performance of the Fund’s investment manager

Third, contrary to GCS’s opinion that the Fund has performed will, Lipson points to the performance since inception as an indicator of sub-par performance. Annualized return for the GCS market price since inception is 16.53% compared to a return of 20.95% for the benchmark.

My Thoughts

I am still going to vote my shares for Western Investment. I find Western’s arguments to be more persuasive. Western Investment has a history of creating shareholder value in closed-end funds trading at steep discounts to NAV. I feel that Western Investment’s interests are more aligned with the other shareholders of GCS because Western owns 11.29% of the outstanding shares. I do not believe that the interests of the current GCS directors are aligned with shareholders because they seem to earn a living from their hundreds of directorships on the boards of other funds. Also, pretty much every one of the GCS directors have a paltry stake in their own fund. Like Warren Buffett, I believe a director ought to have a sizeable stake in their company or fund.

Non-Working Poor; Economic Myths; Trade Deficit; Bald and Hairy

A collection of links for today:

  • Contrary to what politicians say, labor-force solutions, like higher wages or creating better jobs, will not significantly reduce poverty America. Poverty reduction “won’t happen because the vast majority of the impoverished in America don’t work and wouldn’t even if we raised wages or created more jobs.” (RealClearMarkets)
  • Six economic myths. (Mises Institute)
  • Contrary to Buffett’s view, Richard Rahn of the Cato Institute thinks the U.S. trade deficit is not such a big deal. (Washington Times)
  • A new Cold War analysis: the baldness and hairiness of Russian leaders. (NPR)

Michael Dell Acquires Another $100 Million of Stock

Via Bloomberg:

Dell Inc. founder Michael Dell bought $100 million of shares last week after the personal-computer maker’s stock plunged following disappointing earnings.

Dell, the chairman and chief executive officer of the Round Rock, Texas-based company, bought about $71.5 million of shares on Sept. 4, and $28.5 million on Sept. 5, according to a regulatory filing yesterday. As of July 1, Dell had a 12.8 percent stake, making him the biggest shareholder.

Profit last quarter missed analysts’ estimates as the world’s second-largest PC maker said the U.S. slump in technology spending had spread abroad. The company has cut prices and increased sales through retail outlets to boost revenue and take market share from leader Hewlett-Packard Co.

After researching Dell over the weekend, I now own some Dell stock. Dell closed at $19.30 today.

Also, you should check out Dell’s new Inspiron Mini. It’s Dell’s first entry into the “netbook” category of products. Though I love looking at gadgets and electronics, I never purchase them. I don’t own an mp3 player and I don’t have a fancy cell phone. Anyways, if I had some disposable income, I would probably seriously consider purchasing a Dell Mini.

Schiff’s Insurance Observer Archive Now Online

I forget how I stumbled upon the placeholder for Schiff’s Insurance Observer’s new website about 2 months ago, but I’m glad I did. Schiff’s has a great description:

Our Audience

Schiff’s is written for a select audience of tough guys, intellectuals, hepcats, existentialists, trumpet players, pastry chefs, and all others who have a keen interest in insurance.
History

David Schiff started Schiff’s in 1989. It was originally called Emerson, Reid’s Insurance Observer, after the wholesale insurance firm Schiff owned. Its goal was to promote Emerson, Reid’s business. That worked, and Emerson, Reid prospered.

In 1991, Schiff said to hell with promoting Emerson, Reid’s business and decided to write a great newsletter instead. (That turned out to be even better promotion for Emerson, Reid’s business.)

Schiff sold Emerson, Reid at the end of 1996 but kept the publication and changed its name to Schiff’s Insurance Observer. The famous bulldog logo was added at that time.

Publication Schedule

Schiff’s has always had a somewhat erratic schedule. In 2000, after switching from print to emailed .pdf files, Schiff’s gave up on any semblance of a schedule. Why publish just because it’s the first and fifteenth of the month? Instead, we published when we had something to say, which turned out to be about twenty times a year.

The Present

Schiff’s has been on hiatus since 2007. David Schiff hasn’t decided if he wants to continue writing the publication.

Though Schiff’s is pretty much defunct at the moment, the archive of articles is awesome. One can learn a lot about investing and financial history just by reading through the articles and essays.

I started off with Volume 14, Number 8, released on June 4, 2002. The issue starts off with an analysis of Buffett’s seemingly uncharacteristic all-stock deal with General Re. Next, Schiff’s questions why investors often fail to see deals that arise in the bond market. Last is an admonishment of insurance company directors who gave stock options to CEOs—as “incentives”—priced far below book value of their companies.

Great stuff.

Obama Only Got 1 Million More Viewers Than Palin

The Hotline posts some Nielsen numbers from last night’s speech by Sarah Palin:

  • The Sara Palin speech generated 37.2 million viewers, just a 1.1 million viewers short of Barack Obama’s record-breaking speech on Day 4 of the Democratic Convention. The Palin speech was carried on only six networks while the Obama speech was carried on ten (including BET, TV One, Univision and Telemundo).
  • Palin attracted a large female audience (19.5 million women, or 4.9 million more than Day 3 of the Democratic Convention).
  • Ratings for viewers 55+ (25.2) continue to be about ten times higher than for teens (2.2)
  • Day 3 for the GOP attracted more Hispanic viewers (1.4 million) than Day 3 of the Democratic Convention (1.2 million), even though Univision and Telemundo did not carry the speech.

Todd Sullivan thinks that Palin would have easily beat Obama’s numbers had a million people in Louisiana, Mississippi and East Texas not been displaced due to the hurricane. Still, this is an amazing showing for a Vice Presidential nominee compared to a Presidential nominee. Also, I think it’s good proof that lots of people are either excited and/or interested in this Republican nominee.