Monthly Archive for January, 2009

Page 2 of 3

“Because they’ll screw it up!”

One of the books I’m currently reading is The Partnership by Charles Ellis, which is basically a history of Goldman Sachs. The quote in the title comes from the chapter that describes the period of time in Goldman’s history where there were two leaders, John Whitehead and John Weinberg. After Gus Levy died, the two Johns agreed with each other to become co-senior partners of the firm.

As leaders of the firm, it was part of their job and duty to worry about competitors. One example was the commercial banks. According to Ellis, one of Whitehead’s major accomplishments “was his successful lobbying to extend the life of Glass-Steagal, the federal law that kept the commercial banks out of the securities business for decades.”

Of course, this was in the firm’s self-interest to prevent competitors from intruding upon their market, but there was also another reason that is extremely salient at this current stage of financial history.

“Why is the firm so worried about commercial banks getting into our investment banking business?” Weinberg supplied the answer to his own question, “Because they’ll screw it up!”

Now, can anyone argue that the repeal of Glass-Steagal was a good thing? Well, to put it in a Yogi Berra-type of description, I think the repeal of Glass-Steagal was good until it became bad. Certaintly, the financial problems we are experiencing today would be smaller if Glass-Steagal had not been repealed.

Some Buffett Stocks

Just take a look at these charts of some of Buffett’s holdings. When Buffett buys, he buys to hold forever. Over three decades, Buffett’s stocks have appreciated by great amounts, yet in just the past year, some have fallen by a significant percentage from their all-time highs. There is no doubt now that these stocks are great opportunities.

Washington Post

American Express

Wesco Financial

Wells Fargo

How to Evaluate Gov’t Health Care Proposals

Coyote Blog has a great post on how to evaluate government health care proposals. With a Dem soon to be POTUS and a House controlled by Dems, there will surely be some sort of comprehensive health care law passed in the next four years. Here’s a snippet of Coyote’s thoughts:

For every proposal, you should make sure you understand 1) Who is choosing the amount and quality of the care and 2) who is paying the bills and is therefore trying to pay attention to the cost of care.

Take purchasing a car.  When I need a new car, who determines what car I end up with?   Why, I do.  And who pays for the car and shops around for a price that makes sense in the context of the perceived value of the car?  Why, I do again.  The person who uses the car, the person who chooses the type and quality of the car, and the person who pays for the car are all the same person.

This clever procurement model of integrating the payer, the shopper, and the user all into a single individual is one we use for, well, just about every product and service we buy.  Milk, Internet service, DVD’s, house painting, airline tickets — all the same model.

OK, lets consider a model that does not work this way.  Let’s say someone just rear-ended your car and, miracle of miracles, they actually have a good, solid insurance policy that owes you for your car repairs.  In this case, you will be consuming the repair services, and have the incentive to find the absolute best, cost-no-object body shop you can find to do the best, most fabulous job fixing your car, because someone else (ie the insurance company) is paying.  The insurance company has a different incentive.  They want to get off with as small a loss as possible, to protect their profitability as well as keeping prices low for future policy-holders.  They are going to want you car fixed cheap, particularly since you are probably not even their customer.  They are going to try to deliver the minimum.

No surprisingly, people tend to get ticked off in these situations, as they grind against the opposing incentives of the insurance company.  It’s one reason that the insurance field is highly regulated (because nowadays people complain to their Congressman whenever they get irritated).  It’s also a measure of how ineffective regulation is in really managing this friction, since despite zillions of government rules people still get pissed off.  The reason is that there is simply no good solution.   Both parties want a solution at the extreme end of a cost-value scale, neither have much of an incentive to compromise, and neither will be happy with a solution in the middle of these extreme incentives, and no amount of government fiddling with the tradeoff point is going to change this.

OK, but in this example, at the end of the day, it is just a car, and probably this is a once-in-a-lifetime event.  What if we replace “car” with “baby daughter” or “grandmother” or “your life?”  Now, as Bill Murray says, the kidding around is pretty much over.  It is a recipe for an incendiary disaster.  Which is exactly what we have in health care.

Please read the full post. Coyote even cites some interesting data, such as an interesting graph that shows the price of cosmetic surgery rising at a lower rate than the CPI and at a drastically lower rate than health care prices.

Hmm, I wonder if this would have something to do with the fact that there is a true market for cosmetic surgery? Because most cosmetic surgery is elective, meaning that consumers choose to pay for it with their own money, I would suspect that providers are forced to compete for customers and customers are a bit more discerning about price, which leads to lower price increases over the years compared to regulated goods and services.

Going Long on Oil

After thinking and reading for almost three weeks on whether oil and oil producers were a good value, today I felt good and made some trades. Today I sold my position in FXP (basically an ETF that shorts the FTSE/Xinhua China 25 index) and used the proceeds to purchase DIG and USO, two etfs that track oil and oil producer indexes.

The chart shows the two etfs side by side. The top shows a two year view and the bottom shows a six month view. The green circles are where I made purchases.

Patterns in Mutual Fund Redemptions

Via Knowledge@Wharton:

When a mutual fund hits a bump in the road, will investors quickly bail out?

The answer can be important to operators of open-end mutual funds, which allow investors to redeem their shares at the close of trading on any given day. When skittish stakeholders cash out, fund managers may have to conduct costly and unprofitable trades to quickly raise redemption capital.

In a paper titled, “Payoff Complementarities and Financial Fragility — Evidence from Mutual Fund Outflows,” Wharton finance professor Itay Goldstein and coauthors Qi Chen, from Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business, and Wei Jiang, from the Graduate School of Business at Columbia University, say the likelihood that fund investors will bolt is largely dependent on four factors: the past performance of the fund; the investors’ propensity to do what they expect other investors to do, a factor called “payoff complementarities”; the fund’s liquidity; and whether the fund’s investors are primarily individuals and other small stakeholders, or banks and other large institutional investors.

The bottom line to the research is that outflows from illiquid funds are more sensitive to bouts of bad performance compared with outflows from poorly performing liquid funds. Investors should keep this in mind when choosing a mutual fund in which to place their money. Risk-averse investors should be better suited to invest in liquid funds that can more easily meet future redemptions.

Paulson Gives Sweet Deals to Banks

Yeah, tell me something I don’t know. It’s just a little disconcerting to me that the government is failing to get as good a deal as Warren Buffett when it comes to providing banks with capital. For example, on behalf of the taxpayers Treasury Secretary Paulson has invested $10 billion in Goldman Sachs in October, “twice as much as Buffett did the month before, yet gained warrants worth one-fourth as much as the billionaire, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.” Bloomberg says Paulson’s terms were repeated in many other transactions.

Well, in the end it doesn’t matter much anyways. All of these banks are going to be using this money to pay down debt instead of making new loans. It’s a messed-up situation.

Additionally, though I complain how the government is nearly giving money away through these investments, I think it’s pretty certain that the government will eventually come out ahead within a decade. Those who are complaining are simply focusing too much on the short term. In the long term, things usually always improve.

Klarman Acquires 11.6% Interest In Facet Biotech Corp.

Seth Klarman of Baupost Group filed a 13G stating an 11.6% interest in Face Biotech Corp (FACT).

Facet Biotech Corporation launched in December 2008 as a spin-off from PDL BioPharma. Apparently Facet was formed after a revolt by some of PDL’s largest shareholders.

I’m not sure if there’s value here, but it might be worth checking out. Klarman already had a very large stake in PDL Biopharma, so this filing might be just a result of his decision to hold on to the shares that were spun off.

Watch Out Business: Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act Passes in House

Law and More reports that the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act passed in the House:

If it passes the Senate, it will overturn the U.S. Supreme Court ruling which placed time limits [180 days, with some situations allowing 300 days] in the filing of wage discrimination complaints.  That means there will be no statue of limitations on these grievances.  There’s more.  It would permit companies to be sued not only for outright discrimination but also for what can be proved to be unintentional discrimination.

Business be scared.  Very scared.  The 111th Congress began off passing H.R. 11 – the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, 247-171.  This Act has been called “Trial Lawyer Bonanza” in an opinion piece in THE WALL STREET JOURNAL.

One of my classes last semester was Employment Discrimination and our professor said there was an extremely good chance of this becoming law. I haven’t read the act, but the main gist of it is to remove the statute of limitations for people who feel they have been discriminated against by their employer. If you’re not familiar with legal terminology, most laws that give people the right to sue have a statute of limitations which is basically a timeframe in which a person must sue or else they’ve they’ve lost that right to sue. The idea is to prevent legal proceedings in which there is still fresh evidence.

In the case of the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act, a complete removal of a statute of limitations is just a terrible idea. I would concede to extending the present statute of limitations up to one year or even two years, but without a statute of limitations, I can guarantee there will be an increase in litigation against businesses, most of which will be unwarranted.

Lower Oil/Gas Prices and Increased Global Political Instability

When the U.S. finally got some relief from $150 oil and $4 gas last summer, this was not necessarily a good thing. Lower prices was an indicator that people and businesses were recognizing the economy was tanking. Another reason why lower oil prices might not necessarily be a good thing is the increased chance of political upheaval in certain fragile, oil-producing states like Venezuela or Iran.

Spengler from Asia Times Online writes about the probability of a Muslim country experiencing some sort of failure. He notes the rising cost of credit protection in certain countries and also some key demographic issues such as the population of military age men in these countries.

A new site I found, Gregor.us, seems to believe in a similar scenario whereby lower oil prices will lead to political unrest, which in turn will cause oil prices to rise once again because of a reattached geo-political risk premium.

Scandalous Irony

“Satyam Accounting Scandal Erodes Confidence in India Equities” reports Bloomberg. Satyam means “truth” in sanskrit.