Monthly Archive for November, 2010

The Power of Float

In the insurance industry, float is a very important concept to understand. Float is money that does not belong to the insurance company, but it is money the company gets to hold temporarily. Float arises because (1) premiums are paid upfront for insurance protection and because (2) loss events that occur today do not always result in immediate payment of claims as it may take many years for losses to be reported (asbestos losses would be an example), negotiated and settled.

An insurance company that can generate float at a low cost, or if it can generate float at negative costs where the company is being paid to hold onto other people’s money, is a wonderful thing. And if the insurance company can invest the float at attractive rates of return, this is even better. Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is a prime example.

Two other examples are Markel (MKL) and Fairfax (FFH.TO; FRFHF). Both are companies that have long histories of generating low-cost float and sometimes at negative costs. Low cost float coupled with investing prowess is a powerful combination.

Below is a chart I made that shows Fairfax’s historical cost of float compared to the average long-term yield in Canada.

And below is chart of Markel’s historical cost of float compared to the average U.S. ten-year yield.

As you can see from the charts, Markel does a better job than Fairfax at generating low-cost or negative-cost float. However, in my opinion both companies are far above the industry average in this regard, and both have great investors in the form of Tom Gayner and Prem Watsa.

When looking at any insurance company as a potential investment, I always consider the ability of the company to generate low-cost float and to invest the float at above-average returns.

Einhorn and Gold

If you haven’t seen it by now, Einhorn was recently interviewed on WealthTrack.

Einhorn is a great investor, but he is long gold, which makes no sense to me. Einhorn says matter-of-factly that gold is money. That’s an opinion, not a fact. A lot of people do consider gold to be “money”, but that does not make it so. In my opinion, Einhorn is doing a superb job of rationalizing his holding onto a greater fool asset, an asset where you are dependent upon finding someone to buy it at a higher price than which you paid.

Gold has very little intrinsic value and in fact there are many costs associated with owning this non-productive piece of metal. You have to dig it up, refine it, store it back in the ground, insure it, and guard it.

Einhorn has been lucky so far, and he might be smart enough to exit the position at a huge profit, but how can you really call yourself a value investor and own gold?

But then again, like gold, the value of all major currencies are only backed by the faith of the respective governments and their citizens, so perhaps Einhorn can still be a value investor and own gold. If it is a currency, or “currency-like”, what is the difference between owning dollars, euros, or gold?

Investors: Protect Yourselves From Harmful Biases

These are some of the questions I ask myself when looking at a potential investment. I decided to create a nice looking list that would fit on a sheet of paper so I could print out. Then I decided why not share this with whoever wanted it?

Quantitative Easing Explained

This funny video has started to make the rounds. If you think about it too much, its actually kind of scary.

Insurance Humour From 1996

The above article is from Emerson, Reid’s Insurance Oberserver, December 1996.

CNA Financial (CNA) Offers to Acquire CNA Surety (SUR) for $22/Share

I suggested about 17 months ago that CNA Surety (SUR) was a compelling investment as it was trading 20% below book value and that it was a possibility CNA Financial (CNA) would eventually seek to acquire the rest of the company.

Lo and behold, CNA has offered to acquire SUR for $22/share. This is just slightly below book value. If I was a shareholder I would hope to get a better offer than this.