Page 433 of Cra$hmaker; Dominic Ancona and his campaign managers and regional operatives are discussing whether average Americans are able to figure out what’s best for them. One of the regional directors is skeptical and cynical, saying, “Most people base their political decisions on emotions and what they think are needs—all generated or manipulated by campaign advertising and managed news. Self-government’s usually an exercise in self-deception.”
However, Gregory Boston, one of Ancona’s managers, explains with absolute certainty how the campaign will presume average Americans can and will figure out what’s best for them. Dos Santos, another of Ancona’s leaders, explains the simple reasoning behind their message:
“Everyone wants economic security. Economic security depends on economic growth. And that depends on production, production on investment, and investment on savings. But government doesn’t produce, invest, or save—it only redistributes and wastes. So, to maximize economic welfare, America must minimize redistribution. Minimizing redistribution requires protecting private property and personal liberty. Liberty and property depend on restricting not just the government’s size, but also its ambit. And circumscribing that demands strict enforcement of the Constitution. So, specifically, we’ll focus on separating bank and state, repealing taxes that burden production, and otherwise freeing the market from Washington’s heavy hand. When everything comes into focus, people will see us as an all-American movement, because in the long run everyone except a tiny minority of elitists and their lackeys will benefit from the reforms we’re proposing.”
After this, Boston pulls out some t-shirts to give a graphic example of the tone of their campaign message: white t-shirts depicting black ants and green grasshoppers. “Ants versus grasshoppers—building for the future versus squandering the present.”
Unreasonably High Expectations: Viewing Obama Like a Growth Stock
Writing for American Thinker, Kyle-Anne Shiver describes how McCain could win the election in a landslide victory. The three important factors are time, the anti-Obama vote, and Obama’s own arrogance.
I myself favor McCain, believing he will win a close election. I follow the Intrade prediction markets very closely and right now Obama is trading at 65.3 and McCain at 31.2, which seems very lop-sided to me. With over 100 days to go until election day, this spread has to narrow. People have very high expectations of Obama, and when he is unable to meet those high expectations whenever he makes a mistake or when he breaks another promise (e.g., recently voting for the FISA bill with immunity to the telecoms intact) his ratings will fall dramatically.
I think of Obama like I would a popular growth stock. When investors are irrationally exuberant with their expectations of companies and prescribe unreasonable growth expectations upon a company, when that company fails to meet those expectations, its stock price falls precipitously. The price of the stock will usually fall until it is in line with its fair value. Perhaps it will fall below fair value. I view Obama the same way. No doubt he’s got a great campaign and talks a good talk and he gets a lot of people fired up, but I will be really surprised if he can hold up this sort of popularity until election day.