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Choosing Activist Shareholders or Current Management

I am a shareholder of the DWS Global Commodities Stock Fund (GCS). The 2008 Annual Meeting is coming up and there is currently an interesting and important choice. The choice will be either to elect the current Board’s nominees or the nominees of activist investor Art Lipson and his Western Investment LLC fund. I made my decision to purchase GCS solely based on the arguments set forward by Art Lipson, but I want to set out the arguments made by each side in this upcoming vote.

Directors’ Arguments

First, GCS claims that the fund has performed well. YTD, “the fund has outperformed its peer group on both an NAV total return basis and on a market total return basis.” GCS experienced a -0.17% market return versus a -6.25% market return for the peer group. Since inception (Sept. ‘04), GCS delivered a total NAV return of 106.55% while the total market return has been 80.22%.

Second, GCS believes the Fund’s closed-end structure has helped contribute to its returns because it allows the Fund to remain fully invested in the markets and respond more quickly to market conditions.

Third, GCS is against the possibility of converting GCS into an ETF or ETN, open-ending, or liquidating the fund. GCS argues any of these actions would involve significant costs that would be borne by the fund.

Fourth, GCS claims that Lipson’s interests are not aligned with GCS stockholders. GCS calls attention to Lipson’s statement in an SEC filing where he says he has hedged out the commodity exposure and is just “playing the discount to narrow.”

Fifth, GCS argues that if Lipson and his nominees are elected to the Board, they will have have conflicting loyalties because they will owe allegiance both to the fund and its stockholders and also to the Western Investment funds.

Lipson’s and Western Investment’s Argument

First, Lipson feels that GCS’s NAV discount is unacceptable:

GCS’s Share price has traded at a persistent discount to its per Share net asset value that has averaged 13.3% between January 1, 2005 and June 30, 2008, and as great as 16.6% on August 17, 2007.  Thus, when GCS stockholders sell their Shares they are forced to leave behind a sizeable portion of the value underlying those Shares.  We believe that the persistence of this discount is, in part, due to the perception that the persistent and substantial NAV discount is not being addressed by the GCS Board.  Any time a stockholder chooses to sell his or her ownership of a closed-end fund at a steep discount to NAV, that stockholder is harmed no matter what the fund’s discount was at the time the stockholder purchased their shares of that fund.  When a NAV discount is excessive, a selling stockholder is forced to leave behind a substantial portion of the value underlying the shares at the time of sale.  We believe the fair value of a share of common stock of a closed-end fund should be its NAV, or a value very close.

Lipson notes that GCS has frequently been among the worst of all closed-end funds in terms of discount to NAV and has frequently traded in the bottom 1% of all closed-end funds in terms of discount to NAV.

Second, Lipson believes the current independent members of the GCS Board, who receive compensation from service on 133 funds, may be too beholden to the Fund’s investment manager. All incumbent independent GCS directors are a director of at least 133 of the 136 total funds in the DWS fund complex.

While the current composition of the GCS Board appears to satisfy applicable securities and investment company laws, Lipson questions whether service by each of GCS’s handpicked independent directors of at least 133 funds is in the best interests of GCS’s stockholders.  Lipson believes an independent director should not be a director of 133 funds in the DWS fund complex. Also:

  • we believe that in serving as a director of so many registered investment companies inherent conflicts may arise.  For example, we believe a person serving in such multiple positions may become unduly beholden to the Fund’s investment manager, and less inclined to act in the best interests of GCS’s stockholders, although we have no direct evidence that any of GCS’s directors have acted in this way;
  • we question whether directors who collect, on average, over $200,000 each in annual fees in the aggregate for their service on at least 133 DWS boards are too beholden to the investment manger to take decisive action that benefits stockholders if it would negatively affect the fees collected by Deutsche Investment Management, the Fund’s investment manager;
  • we question whether the current directors are the best people to perform the essential task of evaluating the performance of the Fund’s investment manager

Third, contrary to GCS’s opinion that the Fund has performed will, Lipson points to the performance since inception as an indicator of sub-par performance. Annualized return for the GCS market price since inception is 16.53% compared to a return of 20.95% for the benchmark.

My Thoughts

I am still going to vote my shares for Western Investment. I find Western’s arguments to be more persuasive. Western Investment has a history of creating shareholder value in closed-end funds trading at steep discounts to NAV. I feel that Western Investment’s interests are more aligned with the other shareholders of GCS because Western owns 11.29% of the outstanding shares. I do not believe that the interests of the current GCS directors are aligned with shareholders because they seem to earn a living from their hundreds of directorships on the boards of other funds. Also, pretty much every one of the GCS directors have a paltry stake in their own fund. Like Warren Buffett, I believe a director ought to have a sizeable stake in their company or fund.

Non-Working Poor; Economic Myths; Trade Deficit; Bald and Hairy

A collection of links for today:

  • Contrary to what politicians say, labor-force solutions, like higher wages or creating better jobs, will not significantly reduce poverty America. Poverty reduction “won’t happen because the vast majority of the impoverished in America don’t work and wouldn’t even if we raised wages or created more jobs.” (RealClearMarkets)
  • Six economic myths. (Mises Institute)
  • Contrary to Buffett’s view, Richard Rahn of the Cato Institute thinks the U.S. trade deficit is not such a big deal. (Washington Times)
  • A new Cold War analysis: the baldness and hairiness of Russian leaders. (NPR)

Michael Dell Acquires Another $100 Million of Stock

Via Bloomberg:

Dell Inc. founder Michael Dell bought $100 million of shares last week after the personal-computer maker’s stock plunged following disappointing earnings.

Dell, the chairman and chief executive officer of the Round Rock, Texas-based company, bought about $71.5 million of shares on Sept. 4, and $28.5 million on Sept. 5, according to a regulatory filing yesterday. As of July 1, Dell had a 12.8 percent stake, making him the biggest shareholder.

Profit last quarter missed analysts’ estimates as the world’s second-largest PC maker said the U.S. slump in technology spending had spread abroad. The company has cut prices and increased sales through retail outlets to boost revenue and take market share from leader Hewlett-Packard Co.

After researching Dell over the weekend, I now own some Dell stock. Dell closed at $19.30 today.

Also, you should check out Dell’s new Inspiron Mini. It’s Dell’s first entry into the “netbook” category of products. Though I love looking at gadgets and electronics, I never purchase them. I don’t own an mp3 player and I don’t have a fancy cell phone. Anyways, if I had some disposable income, I would probably seriously consider purchasing a Dell Mini.

Schiff’s Insurance Observer Archive Now Online

I forget how I stumbled upon the placeholder for Schiff’s Insurance Observer’s new website about 2 months ago, but I’m glad I did. Schiff’s has a great description:

Our Audience

Schiff’s is written for a select audience of tough guys, intellectuals, hepcats, existentialists, trumpet players, pastry chefs, and all others who have a keen interest in insurance.
History

David Schiff started Schiff’s in 1989. It was originally called Emerson, Reid’s Insurance Observer, after the wholesale insurance firm Schiff owned. Its goal was to promote Emerson, Reid’s business. That worked, and Emerson, Reid prospered.

In 1991, Schiff said to hell with promoting Emerson, Reid’s business and decided to write a great newsletter instead. (That turned out to be even better promotion for Emerson, Reid’s business.)

Schiff sold Emerson, Reid at the end of 1996 but kept the publication and changed its name to Schiff’s Insurance Observer. The famous bulldog logo was added at that time.

Publication Schedule

Schiff’s has always had a somewhat erratic schedule. In 2000, after switching from print to emailed .pdf files, Schiff’s gave up on any semblance of a schedule. Why publish just because it’s the first and fifteenth of the month? Instead, we published when we had something to say, which turned out to be about twenty times a year.

The Present

Schiff’s has been on hiatus since 2007. David Schiff hasn’t decided if he wants to continue writing the publication.

Though Schiff’s is pretty much defunct at the moment, the archive of articles is awesome. One can learn a lot about investing and financial history just by reading through the articles and essays.

I started off with Volume 14, Number 8, released on June 4, 2002. The issue starts off with an analysis of Buffett’s seemingly uncharacteristic all-stock deal with General Re. Next, Schiff’s questions why investors often fail to see deals that arise in the bond market. Last is an admonishment of insurance company directors who gave stock options to CEOs—as “incentives”—priced far below book value of their companies.

Great stuff.

Obama Only Got 1 Million More Viewers Than Palin

The Hotline posts some Nielsen numbers from last night’s speech by Sarah Palin:

  • The Sara Palin speech generated 37.2 million viewers, just a 1.1 million viewers short of Barack Obama’s record-breaking speech on Day 4 of the Democratic Convention. The Palin speech was carried on only six networks while the Obama speech was carried on ten (including BET, TV One, Univision and Telemundo).
  • Palin attracted a large female audience (19.5 million women, or 4.9 million more than Day 3 of the Democratic Convention).
  • Ratings for viewers 55+ (25.2) continue to be about ten times higher than for teens (2.2)
  • Day 3 for the GOP attracted more Hispanic viewers (1.4 million) than Day 3 of the Democratic Convention (1.2 million), even though Univision and Telemundo did not carry the speech.

Todd Sullivan thinks that Palin would have easily beat Obama’s numbers had a million people in Louisiana, Mississippi and East Texas not been displaced due to the hurricane. Still, this is an amazing showing for a Vice Presidential nominee compared to a Presidential nominee. Also, I think it’s good proof that lots of people are either excited and/or interested in this Republican nominee.

Palin’s Introduction at the Republican National Convention

Some stream-of-conscious notes on the Wednesday speeches of the Republican National Convention in Minneapolis-Saint Paul.

The governor of Hawaii held up her hand in a symbol for “zero” when saying that neither of the Dem candidates had executive experience and the crowd started to chant “zero, zero, zero.” One of the funniest moments for me.

Romney was pretty aggressive in his speech and used very aggressive metaphors.

I really liked Huckabee’s speech. He was less aggressive compared to Romney, but he had a great anecdote meant to show how we should all be grateful to our military. I know this brought some tears to the eyes of some at the convention.

Next, the Governor of Hawaii, another person who became governor of a state after experience as a mayor, did a great job of talking up Sarah Palin.

Next, Rudy got a great reception. Rudy did a fine job of picking over Obama’s resume and belittling some aspects of it. The best part was his focus on the 130 times Obama votes “Present” while in the House. To Rudy, this indecisiveness was foreign and alien to him. As Rudy said, mayors and governors don’t get to vote “Present” when faced with tough choices or crises. Rudy also got in a bunch of digs against Obama and Biden.

Rudy did a great job. Each speaker I’ve seen thus far has been better than the previous.

Now, Palin.

The crowd loves her.

I think that Palin’s nomination as Vice President is the best thing to happen for the Republican party since the election of Ronald Reagan. Palin’s nomination marks the first time I’ve been excited about the election this year. It also marks the first time I’ve made a donation to a political campaign.

She introduces her family and talks about her life experiences.

She explains what the job of a small-town mayor involves. Paraphrasing, Palin said being a small-town mayor is “kind of like a community organizer, except that you have actual responsibilities.” Palin did a great job. Very well-spoken. The preceding speakers did an awesome job of warming-up the audience for her.

Now McCain makes it up on stage and the crowd goes nuts. It’s just too bad that McCain is an awful speaker. Hopefully McCain wil be able to show his strengths in the coming televised debates.

It Might Be Time to Pick Up Some Dell

Last night I stayed up way past my normal bed time listening to excerpts of the Longleaf Partners Funds’ most recent annual presentation. Though the presentation took place back in May, I’m glad I eventually got around to listening. Mason Hawkins and Staley Cates are the two main guys who run Longleaf and they are true-blue value investors.

The two qualities that impressed me the most - aside from their impressive investing record at Longleaf - were their confidence in themselves and their wit. Hawkins and Cates responded to questions with commanding knowledge and reiterated their investing philosophies in a way that their audience could easily understand.

Turning now to stocks, Dell (DELL) is the top holding of the Partners Fund (LLPFX), taking up 9.3% of the portfolio. This is a huge stake, and after listening to the excerpts of this year’s presentation, I am pretty convinced that Dell is presenting a great opportunity for investors.

Cates and Hawkins go into some detail on the reasoning behind their Dell investment during their response to a general question about technology investing. According to Longleaf, Dell has:

  • strong, organic revenue growth;
  • cash flow growth that’s even higher;
  • value that’s growing even faster than cash flow because they’re buying back very cheap stock at a rapid pace; and
  • an opportunity to provide their products to everyone in the world

Hawkins says that Dell isn’t a tech company—it’s more an assembler or retailer.

Additionally—and more tantalizingly—Hawkins feels that Longleaf has “an eight- to ten-bagger” with Dell. Hawkins made this statement in May when Dell was at $20. Today, Dell is back at $20 after plunging the most in almost eight years after saying the U.S. slump in technology spending has moved abroad. I think this is probably another opportunity for Longleaf, Dell, and perhaps other like-minded investors to purchase even more shares.

News Corp’s Wide Moat

MagicDiligence makes the case that Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp is a wide moat media company that is offering supreme value:

News Corp is one of the largest and most diversified media conglomerates worldwide. The company’s diversification covers both product line and geography. The lion’s share of sales come from it’s 20th Century Fox movie studio, it’s FOX television network, and the growing array of cable television channels such as Fox News, FX, and Fox Sports Network (or FSN). Recently, News Corp has also made a move into business media, purchasing Dow Jones (the publisher of The Wall Street Journal) and launching the Fox Business Network to compete with CNBC. The diversification doesn’t stop here, however. News Corp also owns SKY Italia, a direct broadcast satellite network in Italy, book publisher HarperCollins (one of the largest English language publishers worldwide), the Star TV network in Asia, several newspapers primarily in the U.K. and Australia, many well known websites such as MySpace.com and IGN, and so on. The full list of News Corp’s businesses takes several pages in the 10-K!

Please read the full article. Also, one should be reassured by value investor Seth Klarman owning a very large stake in News Corp. Its Klarman’s second largest holding taking up about 9.3% of his entire portfolio.

Disclosure: I own News Corp stock

Sukiyaki Western Django

A Japanese Spaghetti Western? The NYT describes Sukiyaki Western Django as “Sergio Leone Meets Reservoir Dog in Japanese Pastiche.

“Sukiyaki Western Django,” the latest offering from the protean and prolific Japanese director Takashi Miike, is a feast for genre fetishists, a loving and lurid pastiche of the spaghetti westerns that were themselves lurid pastiches of classic Hollywood cowboy pictures. It is fitting that the honorary master of ceremonies at this film-geek orgy is Quentin Tarantino, dean of the international film-geek fraternity, who elegantly disembowels a snake in the opening scene and who appears later to fill in some plot holes and speak in bizarrely accented English.

The film title itself alludes to the original Django, directed by the other Sergio, Sergio Corbucci (not Leone). Django spawned over 30 sequels, with only one being official.

Financial Crisis Is Absent From Candidates’ Agendas

For the past year, I have been bombarded with a steady stream of dire news and various statistics showing worst declines in decades. Bear Stearns and IndyMac have fallen and several huge financial institutions seem to be teetering, yet Bloomberg reports that neither of the political parties are addressing the current financial crises:

The U.S. is facing the worst financial crisis since the Depression. You would never know that from the Democrats’ platform in Denver or its Republican counterpart, or from listening to Barack Obama or John McCain.

While both candidates have bemoaned the ravages of the subprime crisis, they have yet to spell out steps for tackling it, such as using taxpayer money to shore up banks and housing.

“They fail to come to grips with the biggest danger that is going to hit the next president in his first few months in office: the crisis in the capital markets,” said David Smick, a Washington-based consultant to hedge funds and author of “The World is Curved: Hidden Dangers to the Global Economy.”

The Democrats’ platform, adopted at their Denver convention this week, labels the crisis a “debacle” and promises to jump-start the economy with a $50 billion stimulus package. It says nothing about helping banks or bailing out the mortgage-finance firms Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The draft of the Republicans’ plank, to be adopted next week at their convention in St. Paul, Minnesota, supports “timely and carefully targeted aid to those hurt by the housing crisis” and opposes bailouts of private financial institutions. It doesn’t mention Fannie and Freddie.

The lack of attention to what has happened in the financial world in the past year most likely shows that this is not a winning political issue or that lots of people don’t really know what’s going on in the first place. I think this lack of attention is a serious mistake. Refusing to address and publicize the problems that gave rise to the crises decreases the likelihood that these problems will be solved in the future.